The price of any commodity be it rice, wheat, or sugar, depend upon market factors that indicate whether or not the commodity will have a demand in the market. In case it seems that the demand is strong reflecting higher market interest to buy, the price of the commodity rise. Else, in case of low market demand, the price of the commodity falls. 

These collectively are known as bullish and bearish market sentiments and owing to these, sugar prices closed mixed in the global markets on Friday. Data highlight that May NY world sugar #11 (SBK23) closed 0.25% higher on Friday, while May London white sugar #5 (SWK23) closed 1.04% lower.

Factors Bringing Down Sugar Prices

As deliverables of the May London sugar contract that expired on Friday were smaller than expected, reflecting low market demand, sugar prices witnessed a drop. Delivery of at least 500,000 MT of sugar was expected, however, the actual delivery of the May London sugar contract totaled up to 242,550 MT, giving a blow to what most people expected.

Also, reports of increased sugar output in Brazil weighed heavily on global sugar prices. As soon as Unica reported that Brazil’s 2022/23 sugar production from October 2022 till March rose by 5.2% compared to last year, global sugar prices declined.

Factors Supporting Global Sugar Prices

Sugar prices received support from signs of tighter global supplies. India’s Food Secretary’s statements that India might unlikely allow additional sugar exports owing to lower-than-expected sugar production supported sugar prices. India is the largest sugar producer and second-largest Sugar Exporter in the world and any impact on India’s sugar production reflects sharply on global sugar prices.

Also, changing weather conditions that have the potential to cut global sugar production acted bullish for global sugar prices. The U.S. Climate Prediction Centre on the 13th of April 2023 raised the probability of an El Nino weather pattern between August and October. If that happens, heavy rainfall would occur in Brazil, while India would be water deprived, which ultimately would negatively impact sugar crop production.

The Bottom Line

Erasing early gains, sugar prices closed on a mixed note on Friday. Bearish and bullish factors combinedly resulted in mixed global sugar prices.

While lower-than-expected deliveries of the May London Sugar contract and Unica’s report of increased sugar output in Brazil weighed heavily on global sugar prices, factors like India’s reduced sugar output and uncertain weather conditions supported global sugar prices.

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