Free agent Luis Severino agrees to a one-year, $13 million contract with the New York Mets. AP.

Former Major League Baseball general manager and columnist Jim Borden predicted that Hyun-jin Ryu will sign a "one-year, $8 million plus incentives" deal with the Kansas City Royals in his "Winter Meetings Approaching, Free Agents Who Fit Each of the 30 Teams" segment on Nov. 29 (ET).

Earlier this month in his Top 40 Free Agents column, Borden gave the same projected contract size for Ryu, naming the Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers as possible destinations. Kansas City was not in the mix at the time.

The only change to those three teams since then is Detroit's signing of Genta Maeda to a two-year, $24 million deal.

Why, four weeks later, would Borden say out of the blue that Ryu would be a good fit for Kansas City?

When it comes to "matching a free agent with a team," Borden said, "Major League Baseball officials are about to fly to Nashville for the Winter Meetings. I've matched the remaining free agents with the teams they're best suited for," he said, adding, "Please note. While I have provided a contract estimate, it is not a prediction, nor does it mean that the player is likely to sign with that team.

AP

In other words, Borden's intuitive estimate doesn't mean that Ryu will sign with Kansas City at that price.

Previously, local experts have estimated Ryu's contract size at $12 million for one year from New York Post reporter John Heyman and $11 million plus incentives from The Athletic's Tim Britton.

In the meantime, another veteran free agent starter is set to sign a contract with a satisfactory deal.

ESPN reported on Tuesday that right-hander Luis Severino has agreed to a one-year, $13 million contract with the New York Mets, according to a source. He'll also receive a $2 million performance-based bonus," adding that Severino, who pitched exclusively for the Yankees, goes to the Mets, who plan to invest in rebuilding their collapsed starting rotation this winter.

Severino appeared in 19 games this season, going 4-8 with a 6.65 ERA in 89⅓ innings pitched. For a pitcher with two stints on the disabled list (IL), a 1.646 WHIP, and just five quality starts, this is an unexpectedly high return.

According to ESPN, "The veteran starter has a market value of more than $10 million a year. Severino was guaranteed a slightly higher amount because he has pitched well in the last two years.

As ESPN notes, the average annualized value (AAV) of recent contracts signed by veteran free agent starting pitchers over the age of 30 is more than $10 million. Genta Maeda signed a two-year, $24 million deal with the Detroit Tigers, Sonny Gray signed a three-year, $75 million deal with the St. Louis Cardinals, and Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn signed one-year, $13 million and one-year, $11 million deals with the Cardinals, respectively.  온라인카지 

 However, shoulder and side injuries limited him to three appearances in 2019, and he was placed on the disabled list in 2020 and rehabbed through 2021. He rebounded in 2022 with a 7-3 record and 3.18 ERA in 19 games, but struggled mightily this season. Nevertheless, he came to the Mets in an unexpectedly good deal.

Age is the only thing that gives Severino, who turns 30 next February, an advantage over Ryu (36). When it comes to health, Severino is no better than Ryu. Severino started the season on the IL this year with a side injury, threw three months after returning on May 22, and ended his season in early September with a left side injury.

In his 'Top 100 Free Agent Rankings' section on June 30, Borden ranked Ryu 68th, writing, "Ryu had an impressive season after coming back from the Tommy John waiver wire this year. He started 11 games in the second half of the year, posting a 3.46 ERA and a 1.288 WHIP.

If Borden's assessment is anything to go by, Ryu deserves better than Severino.